S&P To Downgrade Euro Debt
Cited:CNN
The Euro zone is bracing for potential downgrade to some of its sovereign members from S&P, or at least that’s the latest rumor shaking the European debt markets. As per the norm, S&P declined comment. Likely targets of the downgrade are several countries that now still enjoy a AAA rating from the rating agency, France in particular. The markets have been expecting some action by S&P and perhaps other rating agencies for several weeks so the impact on prices might be somewhat muted as the various exchanges have more than likely discounted the info into the present prices traded in debt markets, foreign exchange, and equities.
Initial returns from European equity markets saw most of the major indexes off just over 1% at their mid-day. EU leaders had hoped that the new fiscal measures announced in December might be the fix that could forestall a downgrade of European debt and more importantly, to be the remedy that would start these countries back on the road to fiscal stability. The deal hashed out mostly between France and Germany was a combination of 200 billion euro loan to the IMF to support its contingency fund, penalties for those countries whose debt levels rise above a 3% deficit ceiling, as well as a permanent bailout fund for emergency funding in conjunction with the European Financial Stability Facility.
European leaders have tried to put on calm, resolute face while the headwinds of the market are making it increasingly difficult to maintain a positive outlook. However, it is hoped that the package of measures will be signed by all members by the end of January, in time for the first EU summit of 2012.
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My take:
It sounds like a classic case of good money chasing bad, especially when you consider that the fiscal picture for many EU members remains bleak no matter how many euros you throw at the problem. Greece, Italy, to name but two, came into the EU only with smoke and mirrors to help them to reach the fiscal guidelines set out in the Maastricht Agreement and now that the global economy is slowing, the fragile foundation is starting to crumble.
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